-Iowa: Hillary Clinton emerged victorious in the closest ever Iowa Democratic caucus, with her 49.9 percent to Bernie Sander’s 49.5 percent enough to ensure a win even with one precinct left to report. On the Republican side, there were two surprises: that U.S. Senator Ted Cruz won ahead of Donald Trump and that Florida Senator Marco Rubio finished such a strong third, gaining 23 percent of the vote to Trump’s 24 percent. Another loser on the night were pollsters who had consistently predicted a Trump win.
-BP profits collapse: BP Plc reported a 91 percent decline in fourth-quarter earnings, reporting adjusted profit of $196 million, far below the $814.7 million average estimate of 10 analysts surveyed by Bloomberg. The company’s 2015 annual net loss is its worst ever. Shares were down 7.8 percent at 10:55 a.m. in London. Exxon Mobil Corp. is due to report earnings before the bell today.
-Oil falls a second day: February is off to a bad start for oil investors who’d found some relief in the last days of winter, with futures decreasing as much as 2.6 percent in New York after slumping 6 percent Monday, erasing last week’s gain. To add to producers’ woes, Standard & Poor’s yesterday cut Royal Dutch Shell Plc’s rating to the lowest since it began coverage in 1990 and assigned a negative outlook to BP Plc, Eni SpA, Repsol SA, Statoil ASA and Total SA. Meanwhile, worries that low oil prices may be bad for the global economy are on the rise.
-Euro area unemployment falls: Unemployment in the euro area fell to a five-year low of 10.4 percent in December, down from 10.5 percent the previous month. In Germany, unemployment fell to a record low of 6.2 percent in January as the numbers out of work dropped by a seasonally adjusted 20,000. In Italy, unemployment stayed unchanged at 11.4 percent in December, prompting growth concerns.
-Coming up:U.S. auto sales data for January are due today, with analysts expecting total vehicle sales to hit 17.3 million, up slightly from December’s number, but below the 18 million level sustained in the previous three months. Investors will also be watching Alphabet Inc., the parent company of Google, as it is on track to overtake Apple Inc. as the world’s most valuable company in trading after announcing profits that topped estimates after the bell yesterday.
-Presidential aspirations: Results from Iowa show Republican Ted Cruz beat Donald Trump. Hillary Clinton and Bernie Sanders are leaving the state in a virtual tie. One thing is clear after Monday night: there’s a long, volatile election season ahead before two deeply fractured parties can unite behind a nominee.
-Stock market sell-off: U.S. stock futures are falling by about 1% and many European markets are dropping by as much as 2% in early trading. Asian markets all closed the day with losses, except two key Chinese indexes, which shot up during the day. Investors have been especially downbeat since the start of 2016 as they worry about the consequences of low oil prices and China’s slowing economic growth.
– Market movers — Alphabet, BP, Mattel, PVH: Shares in Google’s parent company Alphabet (GOOGL, Tech30) are set to jump by as much as 5% at the open after the company reported an impressive set of quarterly results. If confirmed, this move higher would make Alphabet the most valuable company in the world, surpassing long-time heavyweight Apple (AAPL, Tech30). Alphabet’s valuation surpassed Apple’s on Monday, but it didn’t last for long. The oil industry is also in focus after BP (BP) reported a dismal set of results. Shares in BP are dropping by 8% in London and other oil companies are also in the red. U.S. crude oil futures are down about 4% below $31 per barrel. Shares in toymaker Mattel (MAT) are jumping by 6% premarket based on an upbeat earnings report. The company — which sells Barbie, Hot Wheels and Fisher-Price brands — has been in the midst of a turnaround.And PVH Corp (PVH), which owns fashion brands such as Tommy Hilfiger and Calvin Klein, is seeing its shares shoot up by about 6% premarket after the company raised earnings expectations for the past year.
-Earnings: Exxon (XOM), UPS (UPS), Pfizer (PFE), Ferrari (RACE) and Michael Kors (KORS) are among the key companies reporting earnings before the open. Companies giving updates after the close include Yahoo (YHOO, Tech30), Chipotle (CMG) and Match Group (MTCH).
– Will UK leave Europe?: Currency traders will be closely monitoring the British pound and euro on Tuesday as the president of the European Union, Donald Tusk, puts forward proposals to change the way the EU works. The proposals are aimed at persuading the British people to vote to stay in the EU during an upcoming referendum, which could come as soon as June.
– Monday market recap: It was a mixed day in the markets on Monday. The Dow Jones industrial average dipped 0.1%, the S&P 500 was flat and the Nasdaq edged up by 0.1%.